Reviewing yesterday's flags (Apr 22 briefing):
- VRT (High) — Prediction was "could extend the gap". Actual: -2.34% on the day, no continuation. Call was directionally right but not severe. Today downgrading to Med.
- SCCO (High) — Prediction was "sharp move possible pre-earnings on CEO news". Actual: +2.3% into the print. No downward move materialized on CEO news alone. But: we had the earnings date wrong (Friday → Thursday), so the High flag was correct but the timing window was shorter than stated.
- RIVN (High) — Prediction was "re-rating risk into Apr 30 earnings". Actual: positive catalyst (R2 production restart). Downgrading to Quiet. Flag was too bearish.
- LITE (Med) — Yesterday's call was "watch for pre-market recovery or continuation". Actual: no major move. Call held.
- RGTI (Med) — Yesterday's call was "mean reversion normal, escalate if basket joins". Actual: basket recovered strongly on Nvidia push. Call held.
- GLW (Med) — Still on deck for Apr 28.
- CLS (Med) — Still on deck for Apr 27.
Accuracy so far: 2 out of 3 High-severity calls yesterday were too bearish (VRT, RIVN). SCCO High was right on thesis but wrong on timing window. Consider tightening the High bar to "imminent + asymmetric downside" going forward.